Good monsoon, bad monsoon
I was in Sitapur, U.P. for a few days to see how the recently sown mixed crop were faring this year in our friends’ farms.
After two successive failed kharif, everyone was relieved and welcomed the rains. The farms are lush green after the many rains this season.
Almost all the farmers we work with are dalits and their small and marginal land holdings are invariably in low lying areas. It’s also not a surprise that many of them have uneven lands with patches of sandy or sometime loamy soil. Whenever the rains are enough for the water to flow, their farms flood and it takes a couple of days for this to drain.
After the initial rains, the farmers prepared their farms and finished sowing in time for the following rains. Now, these turned out to be heavier than expected and a few have lost all their crop as their entire farm went under water for extended periods so soon after sowing.
Even in those farms where crops have survived, frequent rains are making it near impossible to take up weeding – the soil is too wet. Any weeding activity would take too much effort and/or hurt the crop plants’ roots. So the farmers wait for a dry spell, seeing the weeds taking over their farms.
This monsoon season, we are also seeing that despite normal rainfall, both day and night time temperatures have been higher than normal. So this makes for warm (bordering on hot), humid days with overcast skies – ideal conditions for pests to flourish in. Another potential disaster that most small farmers are in too weak a position (now) to avert.
There are sustainable organic farming steps that one can take to mitigate losses from these conditions too. It will be a couple more years of sustained work before our farmer friends from Sitapur can get there. I’m keeping my fingers crossed that we will get there before its too late.
But coming back to today, the meteorological department does say that the rains have been normal so far. And policy makers, commodity traders and economic forecasters have started calculating how good the harvest is going to be. But for the small farmers, the uncertainty of agriculture does not end with monsoon forecasts.
PS: The higher than normal winter temperatures this year (the el-nino/nina effect) effectively cut the wheat harvest to a third in many families’ farms in these parts. And I do remember reading about the higher than normal temperature in July in Delhi even after the monsoon had moved in. I searched to see if someone has written about the change in temperature patterns in other parts in the later part of monsoon, but couldn’t find one. If you have come across one, please do share. If you are interested to look this up from raw data and do it as project, please do ping me.